Graphical interest today from IMF World Economic, giving a little perspective view of the current state of the world economy in relation to where it was before the crisis

Current Global Growth vs. Precrisis Average








Graphical interest today from IMF World Economic, giving a little perspective view of the current state of the world economy in relation to where it was before the crisis.

Developing countries should be prepared for more risks to decline, as a Euro zone debt problems and the weakening of growth in several large emerging economies is dimming prospects for global growth, says World Bank.
 

The IMF expected a contraction of 2.2 percent in Italy a decrease of 1.7 per cent of GDP for Spain, economies are overwhelmed by the fiscal austerity measures. "The world recovery is threatened by rising tensions in the euro area", the Fund said. The eurozone as a whole will contract 0.5 per cent, in contrast to his previous estimate of 1.1 per cent growth. United Kingdom economy is forecast an expansion of 0.6 per cent before advancing by 2 percent next year, according to the report. The IMF continues to hope that the United States.UU. economic growth by 1.8 per cent, while that Chinese GDP reduced growth to 8.2 percent.
























 
The World Bank slashed its global growth projection for 2012 to 2.5 per cent from 3.6 per cent. The lender believes expansion of 3.1 per cent next year.Current Global Growth



Argentina is oscillating with respect to where it was before the crisis, but for how long?

We were also a little surprised by the lack of Russia of the recovery, the IMF explains is due to flows - capital "fuel lack of credit, private demand and growth before her have crisis-still not returned because investors remain wary of political uncertainty in the run-up to presidential elections.

Here is the lead of the IMF in the Charter. Keep in mind the comments of the United States.UU. "lack (s) a credible medium-term plan to reduce fiscal debt are draining the trust." We have always suspected the Ms. Lagarde was half of Ricardo.

The world economy has declined, financial volatility and the aversion to the risk of investors have increased significantly, and performance has followed differ between regions. In the United States, weak growth and the lack of a credible medium-term plan to reduce fiscal debt drain trust. Europe grabs the financial difficulties of the the sovereign debt crisis in the periphery of the euro area. How these economies advanced its fiscal challenges will affect deeply to its economic Outlook.? Emerging economies as a group will continue its expansion, some at rates well above their pre-crisis averages. However, the growth probably will moderate the slowdown in the major advanced economies weighs on external demand.Current Global Growth
the united states: Weakening again amid
daunting debt challenges



The U.S. economy is struggling to gain a strong foothold, with sluggish growth and a protracted  job recovery. Downside risks weigh on the outlook given  fiscal uncertainty, weakness in the housing market and  household finances, renewed financial stress, and subdued  consumer and business sentiment. Bold political commitment to put in place a medium-term debt reduction  plan is imperative to avoid a sudden collapse of market  confidence that could seriously disrupt global stability. At the same time, renewal of some of the temporary stimulus measures —within the medium-term fiscal envelope — and accommodative monetary policy can partly cushion  private activity. The prompt implementation of the  Dodd-Frank Act will minimize risks to financial stability from a prolonged period of low interest rates. In Canada, downdrafts from its southern neighbor will be offset in part by relatively healthy economic fundamentals and still supportive commodity prices.




The Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region expanded rapidly in the first half of 2011, led by vibrant activity in many of the region’s commodity exporters. Buoyant domestic demand underpinned by accommodative macroeconomic policies, strong capital inflows (although more volatile lately), and favorable terms of trade supported the momentum. The pace of expansion, however, has begun to moderate, as many economies have fully recoveredfrom the global crisis, and macroeconomic policies are being tightened. Nonetheless, growth remains above potential, and a number of economic indicators—including positive output gaps, abovetarget inflation levels, deteriorating current account balances, rapid credit growth, strong asset prices, and sustained appreciation of real exchange rates —suggest that some economies may be overheating . Elsewhere, including in Central America and the Caribbean, economic activity is still subdued, reflecting stronger real linkages with the United States and other advanced economies, and in some cases, high levels of public debt.


asia: securing a More Balanced expansion.

Asia’s track record during the crisis and the recovery has been enviable. Growth remains strong, although it is moderating with emerging capacity constraints and weaker external demand. Downdrafts from weaker activity in major advanced economies suggest that a pause in the policy tightening cycle may be warranted
for some economies, and underscore the importance of rebalancing growth toward domestic sources. Greater exchange rate flexibility needs to be a key policy tool for much of the region to alleviate price pressures in goods and asset markets and—along with structural reforms—to foster more balanced growth in economies with persistent current account surpluses. Activity in Asia remained solid but moderated somewhat in the first half of 2011 owing to the temporary disruption in supply chains from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, especially in the automotive and electronics sectors.


The nature of expansion and the drivers of growth will differ significantly across the region:  In China, growth will average 9 to 9½ percent during 2011–12, less than the average of 10½ percent during 2000–07, as ongoing policy tightening and a smaller contribution from net external demand moderate activity. Investment growth has decelerated with the unwinding of the fiscal stimulus, but it remains the principal contributor to growth.Current Global Growth



europe: enduring economic and Financial turbulence 
 
High public deficits and debt, lower potential output, and mounting market tensions are weighing on growth in much of advanced Europe. In addition, there is a transition under way toward greater differentiation between the sovereign debt risks of the euro area members, a shift that is proceeding in fits and starts. Outside the euro area, many central and eastern European (CEE) economies are enjoying a fairly strong rebound from their deep recessions. 

 Even so, the forecast is for a slowdown in activity for much of Europe, with risks to the downside. The responses of policymakers to the euro area’s debt crisis will shape the continent’s near-term prospects. In particular, a speedy implementation of the July EU summit measures will be key to gaining market credibility. Increased sharing of risk will need to be matched, however, with increased sharing of responsibility for macroeconomic and financial policies.




commonwealth of independent states: 
 
Moderate growth performance. The recovery in the CIS region is taking hold even as ongoing household and financial sector deleveraging continues to bridle activity. Growth has thus far been supported by strong commodity prices, but downside risks have risen with the global slowdown. As in other emerging and developing economies, efforts should be focused on rebuilding fiscal room and keeping inflation in check. Major reforms are also needed to enhance the business environment, develop financial systems, and build strong institutions to raise the region’s growth potential.

With strong commodity prices thus far, growth in the CIS region has continued to recover, although modestly compared with precrisis rates of expansion. Private demand is still subdued in economies with weak financial systems and ongoing deleveraging. Also, remittances and capital flows are well below their levelsduring the run-up to the crisis, when many economies in the region were facing growing overheating pressures. The global economic slowdown and increase in investor risk aversion will challenge the region through a more subdued external financing environment.Current Global Growth  
             SOURCE /macroeconomic/